Reference Date: 25-September-2024

Above‑average maize output estimated in 2024 due to large plantings

Harvesting of the 2024 zafriña maize season was completed in August and 2024 production is officially estimated at 5.3 million tonnes, slightly above the five‑year average. Maize planted area for the main season is estimated at 1.2 million hectares, which represents a rebound from the previous two years, as farmers expanded maize sowings following the year‑on‑year decline of soybean prices in the precedent season. The increased sown area more than offset the low level of yields due to below‑average rainfall amounts and high temperatures in the main producing Paraneña Region at the beginning of the season and to excessive rains during the grain‑filling phase.

The paddy crop harvest ended in May and production in 2024 is estimated at a near‑average level. In the first quarter of the year, the low availability of irrigation water due to scarce precipitations had a negative impact on yields, which was more than compensated by large plantings, instigated by strong international demand in 2023. The aggregate 2024 cereal production is estimated at 7.5 million tonnes, about 5 percent above the average, mainly reflecting the expansion of maize plantings.

Wheat crop in 2024 forecast at near‑average level

Harvesting of the 2024 wheat crop is currently starting and will end in November. Production forecasts point to 960 000 tonnes, near the previous five‑year average, but with a 25 percent rebound from the 2023 low outcome. Yields are expected at a near‑average level, as favourable precipitations in August balanced the impact of dryness at planting time in the Itapúa and Alto Paraná main producing areas.

Planting of the 2024 minor season maize crop, accounting to about 5 percent of the annual production, started in mid‑August and will end in October. Weather forecasts point to average rainfall amounts for the September to October period, providing conducive conditions for crop establishment. Sowings of the 2025 paddy crop will start in October under expected favourable weather conditions, particularly in the southeastern key producing area.

Export of cereals in 2024/25 anticipated near‑average

Cereal exports in the 2024/25 marketing year (July/June) are anticipated at 3.8 million tonnes, slightly below the average level, reflecting the rebound in cereal production in 2024. This represents a decrease from the high level registered in 2023/24, when about 4.9 million tonnes were exported despite surpluses were reduced by the contraction in cereal outturn.

Prices of yellow maize and rice above year‑earlier levels

As of August 2024, prices were higher than 12 months before, reflecting the low 2023 maize outturn. After four consecutive months of seasonal increases, prices of yellow maize started to decline in August, in line with the beginning of the main crop harvest and consequent expanded availability on markets. Wholesale prices of rice have been generally strengthening since the beginning of the year, due to tight domestic supply derived from the low 2023 output, and they were about 40 percent higher year‑on‑year in August.

In general, prices of most food commodities in August were higher compared to the previous year’s levels, with an annual inflation rate of food items estimated at 8.1 percent.

Disclaimer: The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of FAO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.

This brief was prepared using the following data/tools:
FAO/GIEWS Country Cereal Balance Sheet (CCBS) https://www.fao.org/giews/data-tools/en/ .

FAO/GIEWS Food Price Monitoring and Analysis (FPMA) Tool https://fpma.fao.org/ .

FAO/GIEWS Earth Observation for Crop Monitoring https://www.fao.org/giews/earthobservation/ .

Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) https://www.ipcinfo.org/ .